Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
