Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
